Time-varying effects of macro shocks on cross-border capital flows in China's bond market

Xiao Dong and Mingzhe Yu

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2024, vol. 96, issue PC

Abstract: As the most innovative initiative for the liberalization of Chinese bond market, the Bond Connect program greatly promotes the participation of cross-border capitals. In this paper, by analyzing the changes in the number of foreign investors entering the market, the volume of bond trading and the total amount of bond holdings, we find that the Bond Connect has become the dominant platform for foreign investors to participate in the Chinese bond market. Besides, using a TVP-VAR model based on a set of monthly time-series data from July 2017 to September 2023, we identify the dynamic impacts of four macroeconomic shocks: bond market forces, economic growth forces, monetary policy shocks, and economic policy uncertainty, on net capital inflows into the Chinese bond market. The results indicate that all these macroeconomic forces significantly affect capital inflows, with bond market forces exerting the greatest impact. Moreover, the direction, magnitude, and trends of each macro factor's impact on net capital inflows exhibit distinct characteristics.

Keywords: The Chinese bond market; The bond connect; Cross-border capital; Macro shocks; TVP-VAR framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056024007123
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:reveco:v:96:y:2024:i:pc:s1059056024007123

DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2024.103720

Access Statistics for this article

International Review of Economics & Finance is currently edited by H. Beladi and C. Chen

More articles in International Review of Economics & Finance from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().