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The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle

Harri Pönkä and Yi Zheng

Research in International Business and Finance, 2019, vol. 50, issue C, 70-78

Abstract: We study the role of oil prices in forecasting Russian recession periods with probit models. Our findings suggest that fluctuations in nominal oil prices are useful predictors of the Russian business cycle, even when controlling for a number of classic recession predictors. However, in line with international findings, the term spread turns out to be the most powerful predictor of future recessions. Overall, the best in-sample fit is found using a model including the term spread and the oil price variable as predictors. The pseudo out-of-sample forecasts confirm the findings.

Keywords: Business cycle; Oil prices; Probit model; Recession (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E32 E37 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:50:y:2019:i:c:p:70-78