Details about Harri Pönkä

Access statistics for papers by Harri Pönkä.

Last updated 2025-08-08. Update your information in the RePEc Author Service.

Short-id: ppn4

Working Papers

2025

1. A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area
   Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank

2024

2. A forward-looking tracker of negotiated wages in the euro area
   Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank

2023

3. Transmission of recent shocks in a labour-DSGE model with wage rigidity
   BoF Economics Review, Bank of Finland View citations (1)

2021

4. Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting
   Occasional Paper Series, European Central Bank View citations (7)
5. Output gaps and cyclical indicators: Finnish evidence
   BoF Economics Review, Bank of Finland View citations (1)

2018

6. Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
   See also Journal Article Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle*, Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association (2020) View citations (1) (2020)

2017

7. Sentiment and sign predictability of stock returns
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
   See also Journal Article Sentiment and sign predictability of stock returns, Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon (2018) (2018)

2015

8. International Sign Predictability of Stock Returns: The Role of the United States
   CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University View citations (2)
   See also Journal Article International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States, Economic Modelling, Elsevier (2016) View citations (31) (2016)
9. Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns
   MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany
   See also Journal Article Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns, Finance Research Letters, Elsevier (2016) View citations (34) (2016)
10. The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions
    CREATES Research Papers, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University
    See also Journal Article The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions, Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. (2017) View citations (23) (2017)

2014

11. Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns
    MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany View citations (6)
    See also Journal Article Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns, Empirical Economics, Springer (2017) View citations (11) (2017)

Journal Articles

2020

1. Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle*
   Finnish Economic Papers, 2020, 29, (1), 81-99 View citations (1)
   See also Working Paper Forecasting the state of the Finnish business cycle, MPRA Paper (2018) (2018)

2019

2. The role of oil prices on the Russian business cycle
   Research in International Business and Finance, 2019, 50, (C), 70-78 View citations (10)

2018

3. Sentiment and sign predictability of stock returns
   Economics Bulletin, 2018, 38, (3), 1676-1684
   See also Working Paper Sentiment and sign predictability of stock returns, MPRA Paper (2017) (2017)

2017

4. Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns
   Empirical Economics, 2017, 52, (4), 1451-1480 View citations (11)
   See also Working Paper Predicting the direction of US stock markets using industry returns, MPRA Paper (2014) View citations (6) (2014)
5. The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions
   Journal of Forecasting, 2017, 36, (5), 469-482 View citations (23)
   See also Working Paper The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions, CREATES Research Papers (2015) (2015)

2016

6. International sign predictability of stock returns: The role of the United States
   Economic Modelling, 2016, 58, (C), 323-338 View citations (31)
   See also Working Paper International Sign Predictability of Stock Returns: The Role of the United States, CREATES Research Papers (2015) View citations (2) (2015)
7. Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns
   Finance Research Letters, 2016, 17, (C), 79-87 View citations (34)
   See also Working Paper Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns, MPRA Paper (2015) (2015)