Learning from trading activity in laboratory security markets with higher-order uncertainty

Radhika Lunawat

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), 2021, vol. 90, issue C

Abstract: This experiment examines forecasting behavior under varying information conditions to assess the extent to which traders in security markets incorporate information in trading activity to resolve fundamental uncertainty and to resolve higher-order uncertainty. Fundamental uncertainty refers to a trader's uncertainty about liquidation value of the asset while higher-order uncertainty refers to uncertainty about the beliefs of other traders about liquidation value of the asset. I find that in an experimental security market, subjects incorporate the information contained in trading activity to the extent of about 88% to resolve both fundamental uncertainty and higher-order uncertainty. When a piece of public information (the information content of which is comparable to the information contained in trading activity) is made available to the subjects, then also the incorporation of available information remains in about the same range as reported with the first set of experiments. The inability and / or refusal to incorporate 100% of the information contained in trading activity is almost entirely attributable to an inability and / or refusal to Bayesian update. The refusal to Bayesian update is consistent with several other theories and allows post-trading forecasts to be significantly correlated with pre-trading forecasts.

Keywords: Higher-order beliefs; Learning from prices; Single-period security market; Belief elicitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214804320301269
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:soceco:v:90:y:2021:i:c:s2214804320301269

DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2020.101611

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics) is currently edited by Pablo Brañas Garza

More articles in Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics) from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().