The augmented unified localizable crisis scale

Eli Rohn and Denis Blackmore

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2015, vol. 100, issue C, 186-197

Abstract: Trying to predict whether a crisis or emergency event is going to occur is a challenge, but attempting to do so without a quantifiable scale makes the task a virtual mission impossible. A crisis scale is also needed to perform effective post-crisis analysis. The extant scales, however, are inadequate. To address these issues, we developed the unified localizable crisis scale, but it only partially fulfills the prerequisites for effective emergency response and management. Among the features of the augmented unified localizable crisis scale that exploits the use of a critical emergency surface and a scheme for predicting when and how events can lead to emergency scenarios to improve forecasts about and responses to emergencies. Applicable to the measurement of any type of emergency or crisis, be it a natural or human-made event, the scale also enables users to compare dissimilar crisis events. This is of tremendous social value when, for example, the emergency responses to several regional or national emergencies need to be managed in parallel. In such situations, emergency response management teams can use the scale to evaluate the magnitudes and trajectories of the co-occurring emergencies, which will enable them to prioritize resource allocation and to take commensurate managerial actions. The efficacy and efficiency of the crisis scale is illustrated with several examples spanning local to national events.

Keywords: Natural & man-made disasters; Standardization; Best practices; Complex emergencies; Risk modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:100:y:2015:i:c:p:186-197

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.06.017

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