How does technology and population progress relate? An empirical study of the last 10,000years

Jielin Dong, Wei Li, Yuhua Cao and Jianwen Fang

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 103, issue C, 57-70

Abstract: The relationship between technology and population is a key element in economic growth theories. We offer the first empirical analysis using direct time series data of major science and technology accumulation and growth rate, to determine their relationship with population and population growth rate, upon their progresses of the last 10,000years. The main findings are: 1) relationships of science and technology growth rate with both population and population growth rate in the past ten thousand years are non-linear. There are multiple historical turning points and the linearity could be approximated only within certain shorter time periods. Therefore the linear relationship assumptions regarding technology and population in the endogenous economic growth theories are not accurate over long periods of history. 2) The causality study reveals that, science and technology growth rate Granger causes population growth rate; and science and technology accumulation Granger causes population growth rate. Such results indicate that science and technology growth does not only depend on the current generation of people as assumed by many models but also the achievements of past generations. 3) Both time series of the science and technology growth rate and the science and technology rate per capita indicate that human productivity across history presents a boom-and-bust nature. The last productivity surge begins around the middle of the 16th century, peaks at the early 20th century and starts a trend of decline since then.

Keywords: Economic growth; Population growth; Technological invention; Endogenous growth theory; Science and technology history (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:103:y:2016:i:c:p:57-70

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.011

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