Three experiments: The exploration of unknown unknowns in foresight

Leena Ilmola and Elena Rovenskaya

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 106, issue C, 85-100

Abstract: Emerging uncertainties present a challenge to decision making. On the basis of a review of existing scenario methods, we examine how ontological uncertainty, that is, the situation in which we do not know what we do not know, is included in scenario processes. We present three experimental foresight methods applicable for cases dominated by uncertainty; structural scenarios, shock scenarios and action portfolio and Agent-Based Modeling. The main finding of our experiment is that in order to address uncertainty, we have to relax the plausibility requirements and focus the analysis on futures that are perceived to be non-probable. In this way we are able to challenge existing perceptions and multiply the number of mental models of the futures.

Keywords: Methodology; Uncertainty; Scenario planning; Decision making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:106:y:2016:i:c:p:85-100

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.015

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