YES or NO: Predicting the 2015 GReferendum results using Google Trends

Amaryllis Mavragani and Konstantinos Tsagarakis

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, vol. 109, issue C, 1-5

Abstract: We examine the possibility of predicting the 2015 Greek Referendum results by analyzing data from Google Trends on the ‘YES’ and ‘NO’ search terms. Our analysis shows that, despite the voting intention polls of the YES and NO votes being marginally one above the other throughout the prevoting period, the NO hits are clearly and every day above the YES ones, with statistically significant evidence. By analyzing data from Google Trends, we calculate a valid approximation of the final result, thus contributing to the discussion of using Google Trends as an elections' results prediction tool in the future.

Keywords: Big Data; Elections; Google Trends; Internet behavior; Predictions; Referendum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:109:y:2016:i:c:p:1-5

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.04.028

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