Knowledge based dynamic human population models

Mahmut Burak Okuducu and Mustafa M. Aral

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 122, issue C, 1-11

Abstract: Human population models have evolved from demographic models to information based models and eventually to knowledge production based models. In this study dynamic population models based on knowledge production are used to evaluate the effect of productivity functions and variable Earth potential capacity definition on population estimates. In dynamic population models, the Earth's carrying capacity is not defined as a constant, but it is defined as a function of time dependent knowledge level. The models developed require only two calibration parameters, thus they are suitable for predictive analysis. The results indicate that maximum population level estimates on Earth will be around 8–12 billion people within the next century, after which populations will be in a declining trend at different rates given the impacts of environmental degradation which is interpreted as the outcome of technologic developments. The use of lower technologic knowledge levels, which is identified as environmentally friendly technologies, will provide several centuries of high population levels which is encouraging.

Keywords: Population dynamics; Knowledge; Environment; Modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.05.008

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