A hard-science approach to Kondratieff's economic cycle

Theodore Modis

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 122, issue C, 63-70

Abstract: In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.

Keywords: Kondratieff cycle; Energy consumption; Logistics; S-curve; Correlations; Confidence levels (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:122:y:2017:i:c:p:63-70

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.04.015

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