Scenario-based strategizing: Advancing the applicability in strategists' teams

Thomas Lehr, Ullrich Lorenz, Markus Willert and René Rohrbeck

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 124, issue C, 214-224

Abstract: For over 40years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain environments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawing on behavioural strategy as a theoretical lens, we design a yardstick to study the impact of scenario-based strategizing. We then describe our approach, which includes developing scenarios and alternative strategies separately and supporting the strategy selection through an integrated assessment of the goal-based efficacy and robustness. To facilitate the collaborative strategizing in teams, we propose a matrix with robustness and efficacy as the two axes, which we call the Parmenides Matrix. We assess the impact of the novel approach by applying it in two cases, at a governmental agency (German Environmental Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions).

Keywords: Scenario-based strategizing; Strategic foresight; Uncertainty; Scenarios; Behavioural strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:214-224

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.06.026

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