 Enhancing horizon scanning by utilizing pre-developed scenarios: Analysis of current practice and specification of a process improvement to aid the identification of important ‘weak signals’Emily Rowe, George Wright and James Derbyshire Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2017, vol. 125, issue C, 224-235 Abstract: This paper documents the Intuitive Logics scenario planning process and its relationship with horizon scanning activity in order to evaluate the separate and joint usefulness of these methods for anticipating the future. The specific objectives of this paper are to: (i) identify and differentiate scenario planning and horizon scanning methodologies (ii) discuss & evaluate their analytic underpinnings, and (iii) critically appraise their separate and combined value and effectiveness in relation to enhancing organizational preparedness for the future. Our analysis culminates with specifications to (iv) enhance the identification of ‘weak signals' in Horizon Scanning by utilizing a systematically broadened range of both negatively-valenced and positively-valenced scenario storylines. Keywords: Horizon scanning; Scenario planning; Weak signals (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:125:y:2017:i:c:p:224-235 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.08.001 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
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