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Technology roadmapping: A methodological proposition to refine Delphi results

Luiz A. Bloem da Silveira Junior, Eduardo Vasconcellos, Liliana Vasconcellos Guedes, Luis Fernando A. Guedes and Renato Machado Costa

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018, vol. 126, issue C, 194-206

Abstract: This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. The objectives of this paper are: (a) present a methodology to design a TRM using Delphi associated with other techniques (morphological analysis, decision matrix, interviews, and prioritization analysis), and (b) demonstrate and discuss the application of proposed TRM methodology to define alternative materials aiming to reduce the weight of structural shock absorbers. The field research consisted of a case study approach in the Brazilian subsidiary of an Italian auto parts MNC combined with action research methodology. The main contributions of this paper are: a) The proposition of a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap (TRM), including a decision matrix, interviews with external experts, and a prioritization analysis and b) The action research provided good quality results as well as an opportunity to test the methodology in a company environment during eight months; this is not common to find in the literature.

Keywords: Technology forecasting; Technology roadmap; Delphi technique; Action research; Decision matrix; Morphological analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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