EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

EXIT: An alternative approach for structural cross-impact modeling and analysis

Panula-Ontto, J. and K.A. Piirainen

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2018, vol. 137, issue C, 89-100

Abstract: Cross-impact methods are planning, foresight and decision support tools often used in conjunction with the scenario technique. They enable systems modeling in a theory-driven way, grounded in expert judgment and understanding. This article presents the EXIT approach, a novel modeling technique and a computational method for structural cross-impact analysis. EXIT extracts insights from an expert-sourced cross-impact model, which describes the structure of direct interactions within a system. The EXIT transformation produces a relative quantification of the emergent, systemic relationships between model components, effectuating over the complex web of interactions in the system. Compared to the more established matrix multiplication approach, EXIT produces novel and more detailed analytical outputs on the basis of similar input, and offers new analytical possibilities in structural cross-impact analysis. A software implementing the EXIT transformation is freely available.

Keywords: Cross-impact analysis; Interaction analysis; Structural analysis; Systems analysis; Systems modeling; Expert methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004016251731644X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:137:y:2018:i:c:p:89-100

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Dana Niculescu ().

 
Page updated 2019-01-19
Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:137:y:2018:i:c:p:89-100