Emergence scoring to identify frontier R&D topics and key players

Alan L. Porter, Jon Garner, Stephen F. Carley and Nils C. Newman

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, vol. 146, issue C, 628-643

Abstract: Indicators of technological emergence promise valuable intelligence to those determining R&D priorities. We present an implemented algorithm to calculate emergence scores for topical terms from abstract record sets. We offer a family of emergence indicators deriving from those scores. Primary emergence indicators identify “hot topic” terms. We then use those to generate secondary indicators that reflect organizations, countries, or authors especially active at frontiers in a target R&D domain. We also flag abstract records (papers or patents) rich in emergent technology content, and we score research fields on relative degree of emergence. This paper presents illustrative results for example topics – Nano-Enabled Drug Delivery, Non-Linear Programming, Dye Sensitized Solar Cells, and Big Data.

Keywords: R&D assessment; R&D Indicators; Technology Emergence Indicators; Tech mining; Emerging technology (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:146:y:2019:i:c:p:628-643

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.04.016

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