Searching for new breakthroughs in science: How effective are computerised detection algorithms?

J.J. Winnink, Robert J.W. Tijssen and A.F.J. van Raan

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2019, vol. 146, issue C, 673-686

Abstract: In this study, we design, develop, implement and test an analytical framework and measurement model to detect scientific discoveries with ‘breakthrough’ characteristics. To do so, we have developed a series of computerised search algorithms that data mine large quantities of research publications. These algorithms facilitate early-stage detection of ‘breakout’ papers that emerge as highly cited and distinctive and are considered to be potential breakthroughs. Combining computer-aided data mining with decision heuristics, enabled us to assess structural changes within citation patterns with the international scientific literature. In our case studies, we applied a citation impact time window of 24–36 months after publication of each research paper.

Keywords: Scientific breakthroughs; Computerised search algorithms; Early stage detection; Citation impact patterns; Nobel prizes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:146:y:2019:i:c:p:673-686

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2018.05.018

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