Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them

Andrea Bonaccorsi, Riccardo Apreda and Gualtiero Fantoni

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, vol. 151, issue C

Abstract: The paper addresses an issue largely discussed in the field of Forecasting and in many future-oriented scientific and professional disciplines, but less frequently considered in the Foresight literature, particularly in the technology foresight field- i.e. the extent to which biases of human experts influence the foresight process.

Keywords: Expert biases; Framing effect; Anchoring; Overconfidence; Hindsight bias; Desirability bias; False consensus effect; Planning fallacy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519305426

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855

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