Knowledge based analysis of continental population and migration dynamics

Mustafa M. Aral

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, vol. 151, issue C

Abstract: Continental migration studies range from elaborate recording of periodic migration data to regression analysis to statistical models that may combine several sources of quantitative and qualitative data. It is the writer's observation that continuous mathematical modeling has not been attempted to estimate continental migration because of the complexity of the governing mathematical models. In this study the writer proposes a continuous mathematical model to estimate continental population and migration trends. The proposed model is based on knowledge-based population dynamics model developed earlier which was used to estimate global population levels and stability of world population under various stress scenarios. In this study one of these models are extended to include continental population and continental migration concepts. Resulting mathematical model is calibrated using historical continental population data which is a reliable data source. If historical continental migration is a zero-sum process, the outcome of the calibrated model yields continental population growth and intercontinental migration estimates. Results obtained are in line with global projections that are made in other studies. The proposed model is also used for future projections.

Keywords: Population dynamics; Continental population; Continental migration; Mathematical model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162519314350
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:151:y:2020:i:c:s0040162519314350

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119848

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().