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Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study

Ulrike Kluge, Jürgen Ringbeck and Stefan Spinler

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, vol. 157, issue C

Abstract: Intermodal, door-to-door (D2D) travel is gaining momentum for airlines, airports, and feeder traffic providers. At the same time, competition is increasing; having a better understanding of future travelers’ requirements regarding D2D mobility is crucial for the mobility sector, for planning long-term, adapting products and services accordingly, and improving the overall passenger experience. Little information is available on this matter and gathering data in the future may be challenging. This paper considers future projections of European air passengers, and their requirements, for the entirety of the D2D travel chain, including long-haul air travel and airport access and egress modes. The research is based on a two-round Delphi survey (time horizon 2035) with 38 experts, incorporating panelists from the transport industry, academia, and consultants. The Delphi survey is supplemented with findings from a preliminary study, combining expert interviews (N = 18), a literature review, and an expert workshop. Based on the results from a hierarchical cluster analysis, the paper presents three possible future scenarios: (1) personalized D2D travel, (2) integrated D2D travel, and (3) the game changer.

Keywords: Cluster analysis; Delphi method; D2D; Door-to-door mobility; Future mobility; Scenario development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120096

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