Modelling the stochastic dynamics of transitions between states in social systems incorporating self-organization and memory

Dmitry Zhukov, Tatiana Khvatova, Carla Millar and Anastasia Zaltcman

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, vol. 158, issue C

Abstract: This conceptual research presents a new stochastic model of the dynamics of state-to-state transitions in social systems, the Zhukov–Khvatova model. Employing a mathematical approach based on percolation theory the model caters for random changes, system memory and self-organisation. Curves representing the approach of the system to the percolation threshold differ significantly from the smooth S-shaped curves predicted by existing models, showing oscillations, steps and abrupt steep gradients.

Keywords: Stochastic dynamics; Social system; Self-organization; Semi-random processes with memory; Algorithms for monitoring network and social system states; S-curve; Non-Markov (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:158:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520309604

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120134

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