Analysis of the carbon emission reduction potential of China's key industries under the IPCC 2 °C and 1.5 °C limits

Feng Wu, Ningyu Huang, Fan Zhang, Lulu Niu and Yali Zhang

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2020, vol. 159, issue C

Abstract: Carbon emission from human activities is one of the main factors inducing the on-going global warming. It is, therefore, essential to establish a shared responsibility in industry for carbon emissions reduction. In this study, we examined the allocation of carbon emission rights in China's six high-energy-consuming industries from the perspective of allocation efficiency. The initial carbon emission quota was iteratively optimized using the zero-sum gains data envelopment analysis (ZSG-DEA) model. Furthermore, a scenario-based method was used to predict the future of various industries under a 1.5 °C warming target. According to our analysis, the largest carbon emission quota was in the transport industry, at 19.61 Gt CO2 under a 2 °C target and 16.27 Gt CO2 under a 1.5 °C target. The electric power industry and the iron and steel industry show the greatest potential for emissions reduction, and significant effort is now needed to achieve the allocation efficiency target. A “high economic growth and low energy consumption” scenario was more conducive to the sustainable growth of industry. Emissions reduction should focus on the electric power industry and the transport industry. In addition, the use of energy-saving and emissions-reducing technologies in high-energy-consuming industries should be increased.

Keywords: Paris Agreement; Carbon emission rights; ZSG-DEA model; Scenario analysis; Emission reduction potential (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:159:y:2020:i:c:s0040162520310246

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120198

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