Scenario building in an interactive environment and online communication

Mihaly Retek

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 162, issue C

Abstract: The purpose of this article is to present an online scenario building platform developed by the author. With the help of this platform scenarios can be created using arbitrary online scenario building methods in a way that a high number of individual participants could join the process. Using the elaborated online method, the entire scenario building process can be accomplished ranging from the development of driving forces, through the analysis of data and scenarios created and to their feedback. The platform enables the development of not only targeted methods, but the entirely general ones as well. This article provides a detailed presentation of the Two-axes method scenario created by use of this platform and constantly tested on several scenario building tasks. Individuals of various competencies participated in the testing over the past years, covering university students, experts, and representatives of various stakeholder groups. The platform comes with a text mining package with the help of which the resulting scenarios can be analysed logically and textually. This package enables the mapping out of the extent to which the scenarios, the driving forces and the intermediate stages are logically related.

Keywords: scenario building; driving forces; online interactivity; text mining (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:162:y:2021:i:c:s004016252031221x

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120395

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