Boosting the EU forest-based bioeconomy: Market, climate, and employment impacts

Ragnar Jonsson, Francesca Rinaldi, Roberto Pilli, Giulia Fiorese, Elias Hurmekoski, Noemi Cazzaniga, Nicolas Robert and Andrea Camia

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 163, issue C

Abstract: This study adds to the scientific literature dealing with the climate change mitigation implications of wood substitution. Its main scientific contribution rests with the modelling approach. By fully integrating forest resource and wood-product markets modelling in quantitative scenario analysis, we account for international trade in wood products as well as impacts on EU forests and forest-based sector employment of an increased EU uptake of wood-based construction and/or biochemicals and biofuels. Our results confirm the crucial role of the sawmilling industry in the forest-based bioeconomy. Thus, boosting wood-based construction in the EU would be most effective in increasing EU production and employment—in logging and solid wood-products manufacturing, but also in sectors using sawmilling byproducts as feedstock. Vertical integration in wood-based biorefineries should thus be advantageous. The positive EU climate-change mitigation effects of increased carbon storage in harvested wood products (HWP) and material substitution from increased wood construction are more than offset by reduced net forests carbon sinks by 2030, due to increased EU harvests. Further, increased EU imports, resulting in lower consumption of sawnwood outside the EU, would reduce extra-EU long-life HWP carbon storage and substitution of GHG-intensive materials, highlighting the need for concerted international climate change mitigation.

Keywords: Scenario analysis; Forest sector modelling; Bioeconomy; Sustainability; Employment; Climate change mitigation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:163:y:2021:i:c:s0040162520313044

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120478

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