Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Bekir Oray Güngör, Hasan Ertugrul () and Ugur Soytas

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 166, issue C

Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

Keywords: Gasoline consumption; ARIMA models; ARCH family models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:166:y:2021:i:c:s004016252100069x

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637

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