Future scenarios for the development of the desalination industry in contexts of water scarcity: A Brazilian case study

Fabrícia de Souza Moreira, Mariana Padilha Campos Lopes, Marcos Aurélio Vasconcelos de Freitas and Adelaide Maria de Souza Antunes

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 167, issue C

Abstract: Despite its abundant water resources, Brazil faces water distribution problems, since the population is concentrated mainly in areas with less water availability. This fact combined with the impacts of climate change has intensified problems related to the country's water crisis in recent years. Desalination has emerged as a promising technology to meet freshwater demands. However, the desalination in Brazil is still incipient, with its expansion being linked to technical, economic, and political issues. The desalted water price, technological development, tax incentives, and other variables affect the growth of this sector. In this study, the scenario planning method is used to model these uncertainties and to formulate alternative scenarios for the development of desalination in Brazil by 2050. The study shows four possible futures for the Brazilian desalination industry: the weakening of the sector due mainly to the high costs of desalted water production (Scenario 3), the full development of the industry with desalination plants in the main cities, meeting the water demand of the population (Scenario 4), the moderate growth of this industry that will serve the population in drought periods (Scenario 2), and, Scenario 1 which describes a continuation of current trends, with desalination units only in remote regions.

Keywords: Water scarcity; Climate change; Desalination; Scenario planning; Decision-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521001591
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:167:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001591

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120727

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().