Economics at your fingertips  

Classification of potential electric vehicle purchasers: A machine learning approach

Javier Bas (), Cinzia Cirillo and Elisabetta Cherchi

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 168, issue C

Abstract: Among the many approaches towards fuel economy, the adoption of electric vehicles (EV) may have the greatest impact. However, existing studies on EV adoption predict very different market evolutions, which causes a lack of solid ground for strategic decision making. New methodological tools, based on Artificial Intelligence, might offer a different perspective. This paper proposes supervised Machine Learning (ML) techniques to identify key elements in EV adoption, comparing different ML methods for the classification of potential EV purchasers. Namely, Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks, Deep Neural Networks, Gradient Boosting Models, Distributed Random Forests, and Extremely Randomized Forests are modeled utilizing data gathered on users’ inclinations towards EV. Although a Support Vector Machine with polynomial kernel slightly outperforms the other algorithms, all of them exhibit comparable predictability, implying robust findings. Further analysis provides evidence that having only partial information (e.g. only socioeconomic variables) has a significant negative impact on model performance, and that the synergy across several types of variables leads to higher accuracy. Finally, the examination of misclassified observations reveals two well-differentiated groups, unveiling the importance that the profiling of potential purchaser may have for marketing campaigns as well as for public agencies that seek to promote EV adoption.

Keywords: Electric vehicle; Adoption; Machine learning; Prediction; Cluster analysis; Imputation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120759

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

Page updated 2023-09-20
Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001918