Model-based approaches for technology planning and roadmapping: Technology forecasting and game-theoretic modeling

Ilya Yuskevich, Ksenia Smirnova, Rob Vingerhoeds and Alessandro Golkar

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021, vol. 168, issue C

Abstract: This paper proposes a novel model-based approach to technology planning and roadmapping, consisting of two complementary steps: technology forecasting and game-theoretic planning. The inherent uncertainty of target technology performances, timelines and risks impact the roadmapping process. Reducing this uncertainty is a major challenge and allows elaborating different options and scenarios. A formal methodology is proposed for quantitative forecasting in a multi-dimensional space (different performance metrics and time) based on past technology development trend information. The method adopts concepts and approaches from econometrics and is formulated as a convex optimization problem with different constraints on the frontier's shape. It provides useful product line assessment benchmarks and helps to set reasonable goals for future technology developments.

Keywords: Technology roadmapping; Technology forecasting; Technology planning; Game-theoretic modeling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:168:y:2021:i:c:s0040162521001931

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120761

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