Modelling and simulating a multi-modal and multi-dimensional technology interaction framework: The case of vehicle powertrain technologies in the US market

Amir Mirzadeh Phirouzabadi, Karen Blackmore, David Savage and James Juniper

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, vol. 175, issue C

Abstract: A multi-modal and multi-dimensional technology interaction framework is constructed to systematically and dynamically model and simulate the dimension, extent, and modes of multi-technology interactions. Using the Technological Innovation System (TIS), it is argued that a TIS’ internal dynamics couple with the internal dynamics of neighbouring TISs vis-à-vis what is referred to as ‘co-dynamics’ which trade a mix of positive and negative externalities in the form of biological relationship modes. Based on the Lotka-Volterra equations, the framework is quantified and simulated via a computerised System Dynamics model, for the case of internal combustion engine, hybrid, and battery electric vehicles over 1985–2050 in the US market. The pure competition view in the strategic management literature is extended by the nuanced multi-modal interactions in ecology such as parasitic, commensal and amensalism modes. Additionally, the single-path view in the path dependency literature is extended by the nuanced multi-dimensional interactions such as knowledge cross-path interaction and market cross-path interaction. Furthermore, the TIS framework is made more outward orientated by proposing the notion of ‘co-dynamics’ and motors of ‘creative destruction’ and ‘creative accumulation’. It is concluded that innovation policy mixes can possess a triple nature of ‘creation’, ‘destruction’ and ‘accumulation’ for interacting TISs through positive and negative internalities and externalities.

Keywords: Co-dynamics; Inter-technology relationship; Lotka-Volterra equation; System dynamics modelling; Simulation; Technological innovation system; Vehicle powertrain technologies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L62 O32 O33 Q55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:175:y:2022:i:c:s004016252100843x

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121412

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