Policy choices can help keep 4G and 5G universal broadband affordable

Edward J. Oughton, Niccolò Comini, Vivien Foster and Jim W. Hall

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2022, vol. 176, issue C

Abstract: The UN Broadband Commission has committed to universal broadband by 2030. But can this objective really be affordably delivered? The aim of this paper is to assess universal broadband viability in the developing world, quantifying the relationship between demand-side revenue and supply-side cost. A comprehensive scenario-based simulation model is developed open-source, capable of evaluating the global cost-effectiveness of different 4G and 5G infrastructure strategies. Utilizing remote sensing and demand forecasting, least-cost network designs are developed for eight representative Low and Middle-Income Countries (Malawi, Uganda, Kenya, Senegal, Pakistan, Albania, Peru and Mexico), the results from which form the basis for global aggregation via a new assessment framework. The cost of meeting a minimum ∼10 Mbps per user is estimated at USD 2 trillion using 5G Non-Standalone, approximately 0.67% of annual GDP for the developing world over the next decade. However, by creating a favorable regulatory environment, governments can bring down these costs by almost half – to USD 1.2 trillion (approximately 0.41% of annual GDP) – and avoid the need for public subsidy. Providing governments make judicious choices, adopting fiscal and regulatory regimes conducive to lowering costs, universal broadband may be within reach of most developing countries over the next decade.

Keywords: Telecom forecasting; Broadband; Universal broadband; Digital divide; 5 g; Policy; Infrastructure; 4G, 5G (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:176:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521008404

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121409

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