Historical technology and current economic development: Reassessing the nature of the relationship

Christophe Martial Mbassi and Omang Ombolo Messono

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2023, vol. 195, issue C

Abstract: The empirical literature validates a linear relationship between historical technology and current economic development. While the emphasis is not usually on the underlying mechanisms, in this paper we question this relationship in a less optimistic way and we contribute to the literature by testing instead the hypothesis of a U-shaped relationship between these two variables. We use cross-sectional data on a global sample of 107 countries from developed and developing countries. Historical technology is measured using the technology adoption index in 1500 CE. Economic development is proxied by real GDP per capita. Based on a variety of econometric methods, we find strong and robust evidence that the effects of technology in 1500 CE on current economic development persist in a non-linear U-shaped fashion. Specifically, below a given threshold, historical technology reduces current economic development, while above that threshold, it stimulates development. This persistence of historical technology effects is primarily driven by the level of technology in the communication sector and is mediated by various technologies in 2000 CE, formalization of the economy, and life expectancy. Our results suggest the importance of investing in technology and improving absorptive capacity of the economy to ensure long-term economic development.

Keywords: Historical technology; Economic development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N10 O33 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162523004882
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:195:y:2023:i:c:s0040162523004882

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122803

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().