The effect of population ageing on technological innovation in emerging market countries

Zhongying Jing and Zheng Li

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 200, issue C

Abstract: This study reveals a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between population ageing and technological innovation in emerging market countries. The research explores this relationship from two perspectives: religion and region. First, when analysing different groups based on the proportion of religious population, it is observed that both countries with a high and low proportions of religiously affiliated individuals exhibit a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between ageing and innovation. As for regional variations, the Southern hemisphere countries displayed a significant relationship, while the Eastern and Western hemispheres did not. Education and research and development (R&D) investment positively influence innovation, particularly in countries with a lower proportion of religious population. Conversely, economic development and foreign investment hinder innovation in countries with a lower proportion of religious population but have a positive effect in countries with a higher proportion of religious population. This study, through mechanism analysis, found that ageing also has an inverted U-shaped impact on technological innovation by influencing both labour supply and human capital investment. Previous research has not addressed the ageing population and technological innovation in emerging market countries. The analysis establishes a theoretical foundation for emerging market countries' governmental macroeconomic regulation.

Keywords: Old-age dependency ratio; Population ageing; Technological innovation; Empirical test (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:200:y:2024:i:c:s0040162523007813

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.123096

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