 Citations or dollars? Early signals of a firm’s research successShuqi Xu, Manuel Sebastian Mariani, Linyuan Lü, Lorenzo Napolitano, Emanuele Pugliese and Andrea Zaccaria Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 201, issue C Abstract: Scientific and technological progress is largely driven by firms in many domains, including artificial intelligence and vaccine development. The early identification of the future performance of innovation players is a relevant goal for policymakers and practitioners. In this work, we investigate how the future trajectory of a firm can be predicted by the economic or technological value of its early patents. By inspecting the patenting life cycles of 7440 publicly listed firms, we find that the economic value of a firm’s early patents is an accurate predictor of various dimensions of a firm’s future research success. At the same time, a smaller set of future top-performers do not generate early patents of high economic value, but they are detectable via the technological value of their early patents. Importantly, the observed heterogeneity of the firms’ temporal success patterns markedly differs from the patterns previously observed for individuals’ research careers. Keywords: Data-driven forecasting; Patent analysis; Technological innovation; Research success (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:201:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524000040 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123208 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.