The hydrogen field in 2035: A Delphi study forecasting dominant technology bundles

Leo Leypoldt, Christina Dienhart, Hüseyin Caferoglu, Torsten-Oliver Salge and David Antons

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 207, issue C

Abstract: Hydrogen might play an essential role in mitigating climate change. It can be applied across a set of both easy and hard-to-abate use-cases. But, most hydrogen-based technologies are not yet market-ready. To prevent wrong investment decisions, both corporates and policymakers need transparency on where the use of hydrogen is most likely and which technologies will be required. Due to their interdependence, all hydrogen-enabling technologies (e.g., fuel cells, electrolyzers, liquid hydrogen shipping) should be seen as a field of interrelated technologies rather than a disjunct set. Past studies viewed single hydrogen-based technologies as isolated or resorted to demand forecasting without detailing the required technologies. Thus, we ran an adapted Delphi-study to create foresight for entire technology fields and create future scenarios purely from Delphi-data. Additionally, we provide an up-to-date holistic scenario-driven view on the future development of the technology field of hydrogen in the year 2035, including its consequences. We ran two interconnected Delphi studies with 50 subject experts. Our results recommend a more targeted research and investment approach to bringing sustainable technologies for the right use-case to market.

Keywords: Technology foresight; Future of hydrogen technology; Delphi-based scenarios; Technology field; Sustainability transition; Real-Time Delphi (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:207:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524003913

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123593

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