Too fast or too slow: The speed and persistence of adoption of conservation agriculture in southern Africa

Hambulo Ngoma, Paswel Marenya, Adane Tufa, Arega Alene, Md Abdul Matin, Christian Thierfelder and David Chikoye

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 208, issue C

Abstract: Conservation agriculture (CA) represents a paradigm shift towards more sustainable and climate-smart intensification of smallholder farming systems in southern Africa. This can only be achieved with reasonably fast, widespread, and sustained adoption of CA. However, many farmers are slow to adopt CA and when they do, they often do not continue using it and eventually dis-adopt. We combine duration models and quantile regression models to study how long farmers take to adopt conservation agriculture once they are trained; and to assess the distributional effects of the drivers of the persistence of adoption once a farmer adopts. Both models account for self-selection which makes adoption endogenous. We find that, on average, farmers take four years to adopt once trained and that there is a congruence between factors that reduce the duration to adoption and those that increase the persistence of adoption. Access to CA extension and credit, labor availability, education and hosting demonstrations increase the speed of adoption by 13–28 %. The duration from the first training, access to extension services, and farming experience increase the persistence of adoption, especially in the initial years. The findings point to the need for implementing multi-year CA promotional programs with medium-term time horizons that should prioritize enhanced training through community-embedded demonstrations and learning sites, and digital extension for extended reach.

Keywords: Conservation agriculture; Duration analysis; Quantile regression; Time to adoption; Persistent adoption; Dis-adoption; Sustainable intensification (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C21 Q12 Q16 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162524004876
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:208:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524004876

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123689

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().