An analysis of the time-lag effect of global geopolitical risk on business cycle based on visibility graph technique

Yunfeng Shang, Zhongwei Xia, Zhongyi Xiao and Wai Yan Shum

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2024, vol. 209, issue C

Abstract: This paper employs a novel visibility graph technique to explore the time-lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on unemployment rates. This approach aids in understanding and predicting future global economic cycles and conditions. The study reveals that global geopolitical risks impact economic cycles through channels such as WTI crude oil prices and economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, the average lag through WTI crude oil prices is 7.5 months, and through economic policy uncertainty, it is 8.4 months. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the varying lagged effects of global geopolitical risks on economic cycles across different countries.

Keywords: Visibility graph model; Geopolitical risk; Business cycle (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:209:y:2024:i:c:s0040162524006218

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2024.123823

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