Biases in expert judgements in large-scale S&T Delphi Surveys: How to cope with them?

Alexander Sokolov, Anna Grebenyuk and Kuniko Urashima

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025, vol. 218, issue C

Abstract: When preparing to a new large-scale science and technology (S&T) Foresight study we decided to analyse available previous Delphi surveys in order to assess the results they achieve. The most important issue for us was how to avoid biases in expert judgements, in particular related to reaching convergence in the second round of the survey compared to the first round. This article presents the results, which turned out to be unexpected for us.

Keywords: S&T Foresight; Delphi method; Expert judgements; Biases (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:218:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525002549

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124223

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