Investigating the role of customer's disadoption and dynamic shifts in mobile cellular diffusion: Evidence from emerging economies

Shakshi Singhal, Yasmeen Bano and Ompal Singh

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025, vol. 219, issue C

Abstract: The rapid expansion of mobile cellular telecommunications has significantly improved consumer well-being, making it one of the most transformative innovations of the past 25 years. However, the diffusion patterns of mobile cellular subscriptions in emerging markets remain underexplored. This study develops a predictive model that analyzes customer attrition and dynamic shifts in adoption parameters, addressing key limitations of previous models. Unlike traditional approaches, our model explicitly accounts for the imitative effects of interpersonal communication, customer defection, and evolving market conditions, offering a more realistic representation of service adoption. Using mobile subscription data from BRICS economies, empirical findings highlight the impact of marketing strategies, economic conditions, and disadoption rates on adoption patterns. The model’s predictive accuracy is validated through empirical analysis, demonstrating superior performance to existing diffusion models. These insights provide telecom operators and IT managers with a data-driven approach to optimize market strategies, anticipate adoption trends, and enhance service retention efforts in developing economies.

Keywords: Diffusion of services; Mobile telecommunications; Changepoint analysis; Disadoption; Emerging markets; BRICS economies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:219:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525002835

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124252

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