Understanding mass-market electric vehicle adoption: Integrating diffusion of innovation theory with risk mitigation strategy in Germany

Ellen Enkel and Sander Wintgens

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2025, vol. 220, issue C

Abstract: The adoption of electric vehicles into the so-called mass market across European countries reveals significant disparities, with Germany lagging behind peers such as Sweden and the Netherlands. This research investigates the challenges of transitioning new technology, exemplified by electric vehicles, to be adopted by the early and late majority through the lens of Rogers' Diffusion of Innovation theory. Following the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), this study reveals that performance expectancy, effort expectancy and risk mitigation significantly influence the behavioral intention to adopt electric vehicles among the early and late majority. This study incorporates novel risk mitigation strategies combined in the non-ownership business model carsharing for electric vehicles, to address perceived financial and functional risks associated with the adoption of electric vehicles, relevant for the targeted adoption group. The data was collected from 519 representatives of the early and late majority sample in Germany. This research contributes to the theoretical understanding of perceived risks and suitable risk mitigation strategies in technology adoption and offers insights into new distinct characteristics of the early and late majority adoption group, relevant to improve the accuracy of forecasting models aimed at predicting technology diffusion.

Keywords: Innovation adoption/diffusion; Strategies for managing (stakeholder) risk/uncertainty; Technological change/technology lifecycles/S-curves; Forecasting market diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:220:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525003609

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124329

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