An application of Lotka–Volterra model to Taiwan's transition from 200mm to 300mm silicon wafers

Su-Yun Chiang

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, vol. 79, issue 2, 383-392

Abstract: In this paper, we explore the innovation growth of 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers from Taiwan. Using the historic data, we simulate the growth of the area of 200mm and 300mm silicon wafers manufactured in Taiwan by the competitive Lotka–Volterra model. The parameters in the Lotka–Volterra model estimated with the realistic data are obtained numerically. The dynamic growth of competitive relationship between 200mm silicon wafers and 300mm silicon wafers is then analyzed. To prove the performance of the model, we further compare the famous Bass model and the Lotka–Volterra model. We also perform the equilibrium analysis to determine the long-term stability state in the simulation trajectory. Our research exhibits that 200mm silicon wafers and 300mm silicon wafers show a prey–predator relationship under the assumption of natural competition in the global semiconductor market. From a managerial perspective, the coefficients in the Lotka–Volterra model of exponential growth, self-interaction and cross-interaction represent the strength of product attractiveness, niche capacity and interaction for two competition products. We also find that there exists a stable equilibrium state for 200mm silicon wafers and 300mm silicon wafers. The prey 200mm generation does not disappear completely; it finally settles to a constant market alongside the predator 300mm generation.

Keywords: 200mm silicon wafers; 300mm silicon wafers; IC foundry industry; Dynamic growth; Competition; Stability; Equilibrium; Lotka–Volterra model; Bass model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:2:p:383-392

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.05.007

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