Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

Martin Börjesson and Erik O. Ahlgren

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, vol. 79, issue 5, 801-818

Abstract: Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of −0.9–3billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.

Keywords: Oil dependency; Transportation sector; Energy system; MARKAL; Optimisation; Biofuels (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:5:p:801-818

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.10.010

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