The impact of competition, and economic globalization on the multinational diffusion of 3G mobile phones

Towhidul Islam and Nigel Meade

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2012, vol. 79, issue 5, 843-850

Abstract: To discover differences in technology diffusion of 3G mobile phones across countries, we investigate the impact of market factors, measured by competitive fractionalization, and economic globalization across countries using a multi-country diffusion model. We incorporate comprehensive socioeconomic and telecommunications data covering 35 geographically and economically diverse countries and control for covariates from literature. We used the Non-linear Mixed Modeling (NLMIXED) approach in SAS with pooled multi-country data to estimate a generalized Bass model taking into account unobserved heterogeneity in market saturation levels, a major source of inter-country differences. Our substantive findings are: the significance of the impact of competitive fractionalization on the likelihood of adoption and on the market potential; the significance of the impact of economic globalization on market growth. Our findings will aid international managers and regulators in their strategy and policy formulations. Finally, we demonstrate model validity by model fit and predictive accuracy.

Keywords: Multi-country diffusion model; Competitive fractionalization; Economic globalization; Predictive validity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (48)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:79:y:2012:i:5:p:843-850

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.01.002

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