Envisioning structural transformation — lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation

Elna Schirrmeister and Philine Warnke

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 3, 453-466

Abstract: The paper aims to contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations. Experiences from a foresight project exploring future innovation patterns (www.innovation-futures.org) are discussed. Four specific features were applied in order to underpin the recognition of structural transformation:•Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.•Visual inspiration, to mobilise tacit knowledge, support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among people with different disciplinary backgrounds.•Rigorous assessment of coverage of dimensions of change, to foster the explicit consideration of possibly unrecognised/hidden structural changes•Extended openness for diversity, to avoid the exclusive interpretation of weak signals only in the context of the existing structures.

Keywords: Vision; Structural transformation; Inductive approach; Foresight methodology; Innovation pattern; Visualisation; Scenarios; Weak signals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:3:p:453-466

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.008

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