Exploring the impact of evaluating strategic options in a scenario-based multi-criteria framework

Camelia Ram and Gilberto Montibeller

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 4, 657-672

Abstract: One of the least explored aspects of scenario planning is how to assess systematically the value and robustness of strategic options after scenario development. In this context, there is growing research interest on the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to evaluate such options, but with very limited evidence about its performance in practice. This paper examines effects of applying in practice one of those recently proposed scenario-based MCDA methods for identifying robust options. Three public sector decision-making instances in Trinidad and Tobago are examined within an action research framework to provide insights on differences in decision-making behaviour and areas for improvement of the method. Findings from these in-depth case studies indicate that the method's main benefit was that it stimulated curiosity on how options might be improved in order to mitigate negative consequences and capitalise on opportunities across scenarios. We conclude the paper by discussing these findings and their implications to the development of the method and the evaluation of strategic options under deep uncertainty.

Keywords: Scenario planning; Decisions under uncertainty; Robustness analysis; Conflicting objectives (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162512002570
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:657-672

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.09.019

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().