Adoption dynamics of increasing-return technologies in systemic contexts

Saku J. Mäkinen, Juho Kanniainen and Ozgur Dedehayir

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 6, 1140-1146

Abstract: Many systemic, complex technologies have been suggested to exhibit increasing returns to adoption, whereby the initial increase in adoption leads to increasing experience with the technology, which drives technological improvements and use, subsequently leading to further adoption. In addition, in the systemic context, mimetic behavior may lend support to increasing returns as technology adoption is witnessed among other agents in the systemic context. Finally, inter-dependencies in the systemic context also sensitize the adoption behavior to fundamental changes in technology provisioning, and this may lend support for the increasing returns type of dynamics in adoption. Our empirical study examines the dynamics of organizational technology adoption when technology is provisioned by organizations in another sub-system in a systemic context. We hypothesize that innovation, imitation, and technological change effects are present in creating increasing returns in the systemic context. Our empirical setting considers 24 technologies represented by 2282 data points in the computer industry. Our results provide support for our prediction that imitation effects are present in creating increasing returns to adoption. We further discuss the managerial and research implications of our results.

Keywords: Technology diffusion; Adoption dynamics; Technology systems; Increasing returns (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162512000790
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:6:p:1140-1146

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.004

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().