 Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast ProjectWilliam E. Halal Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2013, vol. 80, issue 8, 1635-1643 Abstract: This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14years ago [1]. TechCast is an online Delphi system that pools background trends and the judgment of experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Results are presented for strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts, providing an overview of the Technology Revolution. Aggregating the forecast data then provides macro-forecasts of broad timetables for economic and social change. This analysis suggests that the global economy is likely to enter a new economic upcycle about 2015 and reach an advanced stage of development about 2020. We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing uncertainty. Keywords: TechCast Project; Delphi Method; Technology Revolution; Collective intelligence (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:8:p:1635-1643 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.008 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
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