 Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use modelJan Philipp Dietrich, Christoph Schmitz, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp and Christoph Müller Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, vol. 81, issue C, 236-249 Abstract: Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Keywords: Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:81:y:2014:i:c:p:236-249 DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.02.003 Access Statistics for this article Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier |
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