Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference

Jan Oliver Schwarz, Rixa Kroehl and Heiko A. von der Gracht

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, vol. 84, issue C, 66-73

Abstract: Science fiction (SF) prototyping uses fictional stories about the future to investigate the implications of science and technology not yet feasible at present. Since such a setting enhances creativity and perception, it has been identified as a means to develop new products, services, and business models. Novelty starts with weak signals of change within an environment and leads to innovations. From a constructivist perspective, in which knowledge needs to be processed or “constructed”, weak signals of change are not perceived by the outside environment. Rather, they have to be conceptualized in a cognitive process. We use this theoretical perspective to illustrate the value of novels in identifying and cognitively conceptualizing weak signals. With the support of sense-making theory, we illustrate how novels contribute to comprehending novelty in two frames of reference: by broadening the perspective, enhancing the creativity, and increasing the sensitivity of managers/corporate decision makers to detect weak signals; and by ensuring that the customer comprehends the link of an SF prototype to a future product or service. Our theoretical considerations are illustrated by an example from the novel, Super Sad True Love Story, in which the SF prototype is part of a broader fictional story.

Keywords: Science fiction prototyping; Weak signals; Trend; Novels; Frames of reference; Sense-making (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:84:y:2014:i:c:p:66-73

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007

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