Surface- and deep-level diversity in panel selection — Exploring diversity effects on response behaviour in foresight

Alexander Spickermann, Martin Zimmermann and Heiko A. von der Gracht

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, vol. 85, issue C, 105-120

Abstract: In addition to foresight research endeavours that focus on the application of the Delphi survey technique, numerous research articles have dealt with the method itself: namely improving the Delphi technique's task and process characteristics. Particularly in Policy Delphi surveys and related variations that strive to explore opposing views, the diversity of the Delphi panel has been scrutinised. In the majority of earlier Policy Delphi studies, expertise accounted for the most predominant panel selection criterion. However, further surface- and deep-level diversity dimensions discussed in related social science research need to be incorporated for steering diversity in panel selection. In this article, the main effects of surface- and deep-level panel diversity on response behaviour are examined, focussing on extreme response style (ERS). Moreover, interaction phenomena of diversity variables are considered. By conducting a Policy Delphi in real-time format on the future of multimodal mobility, we demonstrate that value attributes significantly influence extreme response behaviour while expertise is especially important in combination with various other diversity variables. Furthermore, we identified a moderating effect of age on the relationship between environmental value characteristics and Delphi panellists' response behaviour.

Keywords: Panel diversity; Policy Delphi; Extreme response style (ERS); Sampling; Multimodal mobility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162513000681
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:85:y:2014:i:c:p:105-120

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.04.009

Access Statistics for this article

Technological Forecasting and Social Change is currently edited by Fred Phillips

More articles in Technological Forecasting and Social Change from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().