Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris

Vincent Viguié, Stéphane Hallegatte and Julie Rozenberg

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, vol. 87, issue C, 305-324

Abstract: The NEDUM-2D model is used to downscale four global socio-economic scenarios at city scale and simulate the evolution of the Paris urban area between 1900 and 2100. It is based on a dynamic extension of the classical urban economic theory, to explain the spatial distribution of land and real estate values, dwelling surfaces, population density and building heights and density. A validation over the 1900–2010 period shows that the model reproduces available data and captures the main determinants of city shape evolution. From four global scenarios and additional local inputs, 32 local scenarios are created and analyzed.

Keywords: Urban planning; Urban sprawl; Carbon tax; Mitigation; Adaptation; Scenarios (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:87:y:2014:i:c:p:305-324

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.028

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