Axiomatic foundation and a structured process for developing firm-specific Intuitive Logics scenarios

Shardul Phadnis, Chris Caplice, Mahender Singh and Yossi Sheffi

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2014, vol. 88, issue C, 122-139

Abstract: This paper presents an axiomatic foundation for developing firm-specific scenarios in the tradition of the Intuitive Logics School (ILS), a structured scenario creation process built on that foundation, and its application to a case. The ILS outlines a high-level scenario-development process, but without a theoretical basis or prescriptions for executing different process steps. The lack of theoretical grounding has led to a proliferation of methods for developing scenarios, without any basis for comparing them. We fill this gap in the literature by articulating a set of axioms characterizing the nature of human knowledge about the business environment and scenarios as depictions of that environment. Using this theoretical foundation, we devise a structured process for developing scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate this process by applying it to develop four scenarios for a firm in the U.S. healthcare sector.

Keywords: Scenario creation; Scenario development; Scenario planning; Intuitive Logics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:88:y:2014:i:c:p:122-139

DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.019

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